GreenergyDaily

Jun. 17, 2025

China’s oil demand will stop growing earlier than expected, reinforcing the outlook for a global peak and prolonged supply surplus this decade, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA slashed forecasts for Chinese consumption until 2030 by about 1 million barrels a day amid “extraordinary” domestic sales of electric vehicles. It predicts the nation’s demand — which has dominated world growth this century — will top out in 2027, and worldwide oil use two years after that.

China’s oil use will reach a maximum 16.9 million barrels a day by 2027, peaking roughly two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the IEA’s report. Besides the ascent of EVs, high-speed rail and trucks powered with natural gas will help displace crude oil.

China National Petroleum Corp., the country’s largest energy producer, predicted in December that peak demand may arrive as early as this year.

The IEA projects that global oil demand growth will slow to a “trickle” the next few years, with consumption at a maximum of 105.5 million barrels a day in 2029 — roughly in line with last year’s forecast. It would then decline slightly the following year.